The Democratic Primary for Dummies: West Virginia Edition
Well, on the “fair success” that I saw on my posts last week on the democratic primaries, I thought I’d share a little insight on recent updates in the campaign.
After everything, why is Clinton still in the race is the biggest thing that I keep hearing. People think she’s hurting the presumptive Democratic candidate, Barack Obama. Others say that its because she’s trying to make up the $20 million in debt that she owes to creditors and herself. And even more have the thought that she’s appealing to the Superdelegates on each state that she’s winning. She’s expected to win tonight in WV by a high margin, and some think that this is her trying to fuel things. And with that WV win, there’s talk that she’s staying in just so the presumptive nominee doesn’t lose a state after he’s the presumptive nominee. The truth of the matter is, this isn’t a question that I have an answer for. By law, Clinton’s allowed to use up to half of her personal assets if she so chooses, which means there’s still more personal money. But if this isn’t recouped by the end of the process, well, then its lost. The only person who knows why Clinton is still in, is Clinton herself. We’ll see what happens as things go on.
Next up, the big one is what’s the deal with the superdelegate counts and delegate counts. In essence, each network uses their news feeds and does the best they can with them. I prefer to use the MSNBC count myself, just because they’re a bit more conservative/hesitant to add to the count, and I like Chuck Todd and the First Read Blog staff’s take. When it comes to the actual day of a primary, I like using the CNN Election Center because of their breakdown in the county-by-county returns as they come in. But, back to the question at hand. You see the difference in counts because it depends on the official endorsement statements, the candidate’s blogs, the AP wire statements, and the casual endorsements (like Edward’s nice words to both) versus the official endorsements. Its a really thin line there. And to give you an idea too, in the span of me typing this post, there have been two new superdelegate endorsements. And I’d be damn certain that by the time you read this post, there’ll be at least another, possibly more than that too by tomorrow this time.
And Florida and Michigan are back in the headlines, seeing Obama is starting to visit these states (I’ve been hearing rumors of Orlando for on May 20th/21st, I’m looking into it). There’s been a plan on the table that seats the Michigan and Florida delegates that Obama has agreed to and the DNC seems to be supporting as well. The catch, however, is that Clinton’s campaign doesn’t agree with it because it seats delegates for Obama from Michigan–the uncommitted votes. The catch is, the uncommitted votes aren’t exactly Obama supporters, but at the same time, some probably were. So needless to say, we’ll just have to see what happens there. The biggest thing to this are these points to remember:
- (1) All candidates agree that delegates/votes in FL/MI won’t count.
- (2) Clinton starts slipping and starts fumbling for some numbers and looks to FL/MI.
- (3) Clinton calls for full acknowledgement of FL/MI “at all costs.”
- (4) Clinton rejects option that everyone else agrees on but her.
Yes, I know that was a biased shot. So sue me, you were warned back on my first post on the Democratic primaries that I’m an Obama supporter.
There’s really nothing else that can be said about tonight. Its expected to be a 64-36 type of victory for Clinton tonight, but it doesn’t change the math all too much. There’s still about a 200 delegate lead by Obama, with him being about 120ish from the nomination/magic number.
We’ll just let the polls happen, and remember my important dates, as I said them earlier, with some new notes:
- 1) May 21th: Next Wednesday I didn’t mention before, but at this point, Obama will have presumably clinched the majority of the pledged delegates and could assumedly claim the presumptive nominee status.
- 2) May 31st: Democratic National Committee meeting on Florida and Michigan. With the early plans being rejected by Clinton, this is starting to really get interesting.
- 3) June 4th: The final primaries would have been the night before. No more pledged delegates after this point, we’ll be hearing from superdelegates around then.
- 4) August 25th-28th: The Democratic National Convention, which will determine who the actual candidate/ticket is.
And there you have it. Enjoy!
my mom thinks hilary is going to go the way of gore and demand 18 thousand recounts because she won’t be satisfied with a simple, “no, i’m sorry, you lost.”
The sad truth, Annie, is that there’s precedence in all of her arguments of what counts and what doesn’t count for that to be said. For example, using markers of popular vote, states won, which states were won, electoral count, and the reneging on the MI/FL promise, well, it makes it interesting.
I don’t think that she’ll go as far as to drag everything down with her when she leaves, but I could very well be wrong. I think that things will slowly be subsiding, and even since making this post, there’s been more superdelegate endorsements. So slowly its starting to come to that end… We’ll just have to see what happens.
Yes, I know that was a biased shot. So sue me, you were warned back on my first post on the Democratic primaries that I’m an Obama supporter.
The funny thing is, even the people who supported her are jumping the bandwagon because of a profusion of biased shots on her part. I was watching Keith Olbermann the other night and he was showing the clip of Bill Clinton saying that the media types predicting doom for his wife never supported her in the first place, and Keith raised his hand and said, “Actually, some of us did.”
The Clinton campaign has turned Leninist. “A lie told often enough becomes the truth.” She’s hoping that by continuing to say that she’s winning that somehow it will translate into actual victory, and the fact of the matter is that it’s not going to happen.
I also find it amusing that “at any cost” means “in any way that I can get some more pledged delegates.” I can practically feel the insincerity when she talks about Democrats’ votes counting and being heard when it’s clear that she’s really just looking for victory “at any cost.” Does she really think that we don’t see right through her? Is she just putting on a show for our benefit? Because I’m not really impressed at all.
Oh I fully agree, Chris. Actually, if you go back to the Clinton Special Comment from Olbermann back with the Geraldine Ferraro ordeal, Olbermann fully declared his support for her and his thoughts about her.
The Clinton campaign seriously has switched to the “everything AND the kitchen sink” policy that they were talking about a few weeks back, trying to find any and all ammunition that they can count in their favor, and it has quite a number of people shaking their heads. My friend Davi and I were talking about it at lunch yesterday, and we were saddened by the way that Clinton was attacking Obama left and right and strengthening McCain. And I don’t think its as bad as it seems, but I’d like to see her start making more visible moves to “bow out” soon.
And when you mention the “any way to get more pledged delegates,” well, I barely covered that argument in my first post how pledged delegates aren’t likely to change, but with how things are going, I might end up making a new one soon, talking more about the pledged delegates and how that all works.
Its a historic race, one to tell our kids about, and its one that’s well worth keeping on watching, but like many others, well, I’m just waiting for the end and the presidential race to begin…