Democratic Primary for Dummies - The Final Countdown
Well friends, this will be the last time that I think I post about the Democratic Primaries for 2008, mostly because this is the last one. I think its worthwhile to run down a few things. I hope that these posts have made things a bit easier to understand, and I’m going to try to continue to make them, probably after most of the presidential debates with a rundown of each side and the major arguments. But we’ll see…
So, let’s run down some of the biggies…
1) Florida and Michigan - If you missed the DNC committee meeting this weekend, here’s what happened:
All delegates from both states only get a half a vote each. Delegates were allocated as follows (with what their votes are worth in parenthesis)–
Florida: Clinton-105 (52.5), Obama-67 (33.5)
Michigan: Clinton-69 (34.5), Obama-59 (29.5)
Superdelegates in Florida and Michigan get .5 vote each. Michigan was allocated based on a formula from county returns and exit polls, which irritated the Clinton campaign. If they had gone from the popular votes and the actual returns, they would have had 73 delegates, and most statements from the campaign have referred to the delegates as being “stolen.”
2) Where we are today - I’m going to go off of the MSNBC.com counts because they’re the most conservative. This count is from the 9:14AM update of the First Read blog:
Pledged Delegates: Obama-1729, Clinton-1625
Edward’s Pledged Delegates: Obama-16.5, Clinton-0 (Delegates pledged to Edwards who have switched)
Superdelegates: Obama-335.5, Clinton-295
Total Delegates: Obama-2081, Clinton-1920
Delegates Needed for Nomination: Obama-37, Clinton-198
If I’m reading my numbers right (and referencing an older First Read post), there are a total of 194 undeclared superdelegates.
3) Montana, South Dakota, and today’s election news - First off, today in the delegate count, there’s no much happening… There are 16 delegates available in the Montana primary (which closes at 10pm EST tonight) and 15 delegates available in the South Dakota Primary (which closes at 9pm EST tonight). Most of the splits are predicting that Obama will pick up about 17 delegates in both contests combined. The thing to remember is that the delegates are not rewarded in a winner take all format, but done proportionately to the percentage of votes. The Obama campaign is looking for at least 20 superdelegates to make their endorsements today and make their votes known so that tonight they can hopefully declare themselves as the nominee. Today’s just about picking up superdelegates and slowly inching towards the nomination.
That’s pretty much all I have. I started this post around 10am, but I held it till now before posting because of hearing of a news conference coming up on Capitol Hill at 10:30 from Senator Schumer and Senator Boxer, and wanting to hear what was going on with that but to no avail, really…
But I’m glad that I did wait because there’s a new AP wire report out about Clinton acknowledging Obama’s nomination tonight if he collects the delegates. So its all about just waiting today and just letting it play out. Sort of like the other primary days…
I hope these posts have been helpful in understanding what’s going on. I’ve enjoyed writing them for sure…
EDIT 12:04pm: I don’t often edit because I like for things to be final, but what’s really interesting is that the Clinton report that I cite above has been withdrawn and “unconfirmed” now. So its all just interesting to watch. I thought its worthwhile to mention this edit, especially because the unassailable Chuck Todd has said that the only person who knows if this is true or not? Hillary herself, and that she’ll probably change this mindset over the course of the day back and forth for a bit…
